Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases

Description

Starting from basic assumptions on transmission of infection, models will be formulated and key quantities will be derived. Mathematical tools to formulate and analyse compartmental infectious disease models will be introduced and applications to specific infectious diseases and intervention strategies will be discussed. Students will develop their own models using specialized software.

Mathematical modeling is a valuable tool in the analysis of infectious disease dynamics and to support the development of control strategies for epidemic outbreaks. This course will give a thorough introduction to the conceptual ideas and mathematical tools needed for infectious disease modeling. The focus will be on the dynamics of infectious diseases, the analysis of transmission patterns in various populations, and methods to assess the effectiveness of control strategies. These methods will be illustrated with examples of specific infections such as HIV, childhood infections, influenza, and vector borne diseases.

The principles of modeling will be addressed in the first week of the course and expanded to more in-depth level in the advanced second week of the course. The aim is to provide the participants with the knowledge to evaluate and judge infectious disease epidemiology research and data analysis that uses mathematical modeling techniques. Topics are among others: basic reproduction number, deterministic and stochastic models, population heterogeneity, statistical inference, population biology, and vaccination. Participants will learn to design and analyze compartmental mathematical models using specialized software.

Lecturers

Egil Fischer, Martin Bootsma, Michiel van Boven, Alexandra Teslya, and others.

Target audience

Students with a background in epidemiology, theoretical biology, applied mathematics, or similar disciplines. A basic level of mathematics is required (calculus, differential equations, some linear algebra). For advanced students with modelling experience this course may be too basic. Please ask the course coordinator if you are unsure about the course level.

Aim of the course

Understand the basic concepts of infectious disease modelling; ability of formulating and analysing a simple model; knowledge of how to estimate some basic parameters; read scientific literature on infectious disease modelling.

Study load

Five days per week, from 09:00 to 17:00.

Lectures, practicals, self study.

Tags

• epidemiology
• infectious diseases
• modeling